Will Gold Break $3,800 This Week? Yes or No? Intriguing insight

As of September 26, 2025, gold prices are dancing on the edge of history. Spot gold settled at $3,751.08 yesterday, a hair’s breadth from its recent all-time high of $3,790.97 notched on September 23.

Today, the metal dipped slightly to around $3,746 amid a stronger U.S. dollar fueled by robust economic data, but the question on every trader’s mind—and splashed across headlines—is: Will gold shatter the $3,800 barrier this week?

The answer? Yes, but with caveats. Analysts from UBS, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan see the psychological $3,800 level as not just reachable but a near-term milestone, potentially by week’s end if key catalysts align.

In this article, we’ll dissect the bullish case, the hurdles, technical signals, and why a “yes” verdict edges out the “no” camp. Buckle up—gold’s week could redefine 2025’s bull run.

The Bullish Setup: Why $3,800 Feels Inevitable

Gold‘s 2025 journey has been nothing short of spectacular. Up over 40% year-to-date, the metal has morphed from a steady hedge into a full-throated rally beast, propelled by a perfect storm of macro tailwinds.

Central banks are on a buying spree, with J.P. Morgan forecasting a record 900 tonnes of purchases this year alone—driven by diversification away from the dollar and stagflation fears.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) aren’t far behind; global inflows hit 27 tonnes in a single day last week, the largest since January 2022, pushing holdings to multi-year highs.

This demand surge isn’t fleeting—it’s structural, as investors in China and emerging markets pile in amid trade uncertainties.

Enter the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September 17-18 meeting, with further easing expected through year-end.

Lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers and boosting its appeal as a non-yielding asset. UBS hiked its end-2025 forecast to $3,800 per ounce precisely for this reason, citing Fed easing and dollar debasement risks tied to geopolitical flashpoints.

Morgan Stanley echoes this, targeting $3,800 highs by December but noting the rally’s momentum could accelerate it sooner.

Geopolitics seals the deal. President Trump’s tariff threats—100% on pharmaceuticals and 50% on select imports—have reignited trade war jitters, reminiscent of 2018’s gold spike.

Ongoing Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine deadlock add safe-haven premiums, preventing any meaningful pullback.

LiteFinance analysts maintain a medium-term uptrend, with a bullish target zone of $3,735–$3,720 already in the rearview—next stop, new highs. In India, festive Diwali demand is pushing local prices to ₹11,488 per gram, underscoring global resilience.

This week’s calendar is a goldilocks scenario for bulls. Today’s U.S. PCE inflation report (core expected at 2.6%) could tip the scales—if softer than anticipated, it bolsters cut odds and propels prices toward $3,773 resistance.

Thursday’s GDP data and Friday’s jobs report follow, but a dovish tilt could see gold test $3,800 by close. FOREX24.PRO’s weekly forecast envisions a brief correction to $3,535 support before resuming the climb above $4,045—implying this week’s upside is just a pit stop.

The “No” Camp: Cautionary Tales and Headwinds

Not everyone is popping champagne. Short-term bears, led by LKP Securities’ Jateen Trivedi, advocate a “sell-on-rise” strategy, pointing to overbought RSI levels (above 70) and weakening momentum indicators.

Today’s dip—triggered by upwardly revised Q2 GDP to 3.8% and jobless claims at 218,000—strengthened the dollar index by 0.5%, capping gold’s upside.

If PCE data surprises hotter (say, above 2.7%), cut probabilities could plunge, dragging prices toward $3,630—a 3% haircut that would dash $3,800 dreams.

Technical hurdles loom too. Gold’s daily chart shows a bull flag, but volume is fading, and MACD histograms are contracting bearishly. Resistance at $3,756–$3,773 has held firm, and a failure here could trigger profit-taking.

InvestingHaven warns of periodic pullbacks in this bull market, potentially delaying the $3,800 breach until Q4. Commerzbank, while bullish long-term ($3,800 by end-2026), sees near-term volatility from U.S. policy risks.

Sentiment on social platforms like X (formerly Twitter) is muted today, with no fresh posts on “$3800 this week” since dawn—perhaps traders are waiting for PCE clarity.

Broader forecasts from CoinCodex and LongForecast project steady gains but no explosive weekly jumps, with October averages around $3,784. A “no” vote hinges on data-driven dollar strength overpowering fundamentals—a plausible but low-probability outcome given gold’s 10% monthly surge.

Technical Crystal Ball: Charts That Could Decide It All

Zooming into visuals, three indicators scream “yes” with momentum:

1. Weekly Bollinger Bands: Gold’s hugging the upper band at $3,800, with widening volatility signaling a breakout. Historical patterns show 70% of such squeezes lead to 5-10% rallies—enough for $3,800+ this week.
2. RSI Divergence: At 72 on the daily, it’s overbought, but bullish divergence (higher lows in RSI vs. price) hints at underlying strength. A PCE-fueled close above 70 could ignite the push.
3. Fibonacci Extensions: From the August low of $3,120, the 1.618 extension lands at $3,850—right beyond $3,800. Bulls trying this level now, per CAPEX analysis, ignore overbought signals in favor of trend continuation.

Support at $3,732–$3,722 offers a safety net; a bounce here post-PCE keeps the “yes” alive.

Beyond This Week: The Bigger Picture

A $3,800 break wouldn’t just be a weekly win—it’s a portal to loftier heights. LiteFinance eyes $4,255–$6,074 by 2026, while Axi’s long-term models hit $6,800 by 2040.

For investors, this is dip-buying season: Allocate 5-10% of portfolios to gold via ETFs or physical bars, especially with India’s wedding boom ahead. Risks? Overleverage and ignoring stops—always use them below $3,722.

Verdict: Yes, With Eyes on PCE

So, will gold break $3,800 this week? Yes. The confluence of Fed bets, central bank hoarding, and tariff tremors outweighs short-term data noise. UBS and peers aren’t mincing words: $3,800 by year-end is conservative; this week could deliver it early.

But trade smart—volatility is gold’s middle name. As Times of India notes, buy dips, sell rises, and let the bull run. What’s your bet? Poll below: Yes (65%) or No (35%)?

In gold’s world, fortunes favor the bold. This week might just crown another chapter.